Here’s the early BAD news for fuel prices in May 2026

South African motorists are facing another historic surge in fuel prices, with projected increases for May 2026 expected to far exceed the already steep hikes experienced in April.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) confirmed significant increases across petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin, driven by continued volatility in global oil markets and a weaker rand amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

April Increase Softened by Temporary Relief

Fuel prices rose sharply at the start of April, although the impact was partially cushioned by a temporary R3.00 per litre reduction in the general fuel levy announced by National Treasury.

As a result, petrol prices both inland and at the coast increased by R3.06 per litre, while diesel rose by between R7.37 and R7.51 per litre, depending on the grade.

Projected May Fuel Price Increases

Early projections for May suggest even steeper increases could be on the way:

• Petrol 93: increase of R5.18 per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of R5.55 per litre
• Diesel (0.05% sulphur): increase of R14.09 per litre
• Diesel (0.005% sulphur): increase of R14.15 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R12.44 per litre

If these projections materialise, the hikes will place significant pressure on household budgets and the broader economy, particularly in sectors reliant on diesel-powered transport.

Global Tensions Driving Oil Prices

Several global factors are contributing to the expected fuel price surge:

• Escalating conflict in the Middle East, following US military strikes against Iran and subsequent retaliation.
• Rising global oil prices, with Brent crude climbing above $100 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions.
• Concerns about the stability of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transport corridors.
• A weaker rand, which raises the cost of imported fuel.

Diesel Increase Raises Economic Concerns

Diesel prices are expected to rise the most dramatically, posing serious challenges for sectors such as freight, agriculture and manufacturing.

Higher diesel costs typically filter through the economy, pushing up transportation expenses, food prices and inflation.

Businesses reliant on logistics and supply chains may be forced to pass on higher costs to consumers in the coming months.

Economic Impact

Economists warn that the projected increases could intensify inflationary pressure, particularly following April’s already steep adjustments.

Analysts say developments in global oil markets and currency fluctuations will be closely monitored in the coming weeks, as these factors will ultimately determine the final fuel price adjustments for May.

Latest forecast

Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 518 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 555 cents for 95 users is anticipated.

Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 1 409 and 1 415 cents per litre increase.

Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 1 244 cents in price.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $109.24 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.96/$.

The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May.

The April 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):