Here’s the latest petrol price forecast for June 2026

South African motorists could finally get some relief at the pumps in June after months of punishing fuel price hikes, with the latest mid-month data pointing to significantly lower diesel prices and only modest petrol increases.

Figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggest fuel recoveries have stabilised notably compared to the extreme volatility seen in April and May, when geopolitical tensions and soaring oil prices triggered some of the steepest increases in years.

Petrol Increases Expected to Stay Relatively Small

If current trends hold through month-end, petrol motorists may see only slight increases in June:

• Petrol 93: expected increase of around 11 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: expected increase of around 17 cents per litre

While still increases, they are far below the sharp hikes motorists absorbed in recent months and reflect improving stability in international fuel markets.

Diesel Users Could See Significant Relief

Diesel users stand to benefit the most.

Current recoveries indicate:

• Diesel 0.05%: over-recovery of approximately R3.56 per litre
• Diesel 0.005%: over-recovery of approximately R4.56 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: expected decrease of about R4.55 per litre

The possible reductions come after diesel prices surged by almost R13 per litre over April and May amid elevated global oil prices and supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East.

Why the Outlook Has Improved

Analysts point to two major reasons behind the relative calm:

First, the rand has remained surprisingly resilient despite global uncertainty, largely trading around R16.50 to the US dollar and avoiding prolonged weakness beyond R17/$.

Second, oil prices have settled into a narrower trading range above $100 a barrel, reducing the volatility that previously drove local fuel costs sharply higher.

However, the outlook remains fragile.

Ongoing tensions involving Iran and continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are still unsettling global energy markets.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global oil inventories are falling at a record pace and that supply could remain severely constrained until at least October.

Recent Update: Fuel Levy Relief Will Be Reduced in June

One major update since earlier forecasts is that motorists are unlikely to enjoy the full benefit of these fuel recoveries.

Government has confirmed that temporary fuel levy relief introduced to soften the impact of soaring prices will begin to phase out in June.

Relief measures introduced in April and extended through May will be halved from 3 June:

• Petrol levy relief: reduced to R1.50 per litre
• Diesel levy relief: reduced to R1.96 per litre

This means part of the tax saving enjoyed over the past two months will be added back into fuel prices, limiting the relief consumers may feel at filling stations.

Full levy restoration is expected in July unless government intervenes again.

What Motorists Can Expect

Based on the latest projections, June is still shaping up to be a noticeably better month than April or May – especially for diesel users and industries reliant on transport.

But economists warn that a renewed oil price surge above $120 a barrel, or fresh weakness in the rand, could quickly reverse the gains.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official June fuel price adjustments at the end of the month, with new prices taking effect in early June.

Latest forecast

Below, the latest projections for June 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 11 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 17 cents for 95 users is anticipated.

Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 365 and 456 cents per litre decrease.

Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to drop by 455 cents in price.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $110.06 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.63/$.

The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 2 June.

Current May 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):