South African manufacturing 7.9% smaller than 2019

South African manufacturing production is 7.9% smaller than 2019. This followed a 1.3% drop in 2025. The decline in manufacturing production is in large measure due to the extended period of electricity load shedding, as well as the high electricity prices.

Electricity consumption in 2025 lowest since 2001

High electricity prices as well as the erratic supply of power meant that industries such as steel and ferroalloy smelting had to close down electric arc furnaces. This is because they were unable to compete with international suppliers who had access to cheap reliable power.

This is reflected in the 7.6% year on year decline in electricity consumption in December 2025. The annual consumption was 4.2% less than 2024 and was the lowest since 2001, according to Statistics South Africa.

Steel impact

The decline in manufacturing production over the past decade is illustrated by the 37.5% plunge in South African steel production from 7.2 million tons in 2014 to only 4.5 million tons in 2025.

In the same way that South Africa was once the world’s largest gold producer, so South Africa was Africa’s largest steel producer. It lost that title to Egypt in 2017. Egypt’s steel production has more than doubled from 5 million tons in 2016 to 10.6 million tons in 2025.

2025 Detractors

The main detractors in 2025 were: wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing (-3.1%); motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment (-2.5%); basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-1.3%); and petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products (-0.9%).

Prospects

The recovery in the South African manufacturing industry is dependent on the build out of renewable energy projects and the complementary national transmission grid.

The Presidential Climate Commission expects a roll out 6 Gigawatts (GW) to 8 GW of renewable energy projects per year for the foreseeable future. This implies a total of 30 GW to 40 GW in the next five years.

The rollout of some 14 500 kilometers of high voltage transmission power lines over the next decade will provide manufacturing development opportunities. The products needed are steel lattice towers, poles, conductors, insulators, optical ground wires, earth wires and other hardware.

Similarly, the upgrading of the transmission and distribution infrastructure will create manufacturing jobs. Transformers, shunt reactors, switchgears, capacitators, protection equipment, telecommunications, metering and control equipment, and other hardware are needed.