April fuel price forecast will give SA motorists sleepless nights

South African motorists could face a significant fuel price increase in April as rising global oil prices place growing pressure on the local fuel market.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows steep early-month under-recoveries, suggesting the potential for higher petrol and diesel prices if current trends continue.

According to the CEF’s fuel price snapshot as of Wednesday, 11 March, petrol is showing an under-recovery of up to R3.70 per litre, while diesel is sitting even deeper in negative territory at around R6.29 per litre.

Although the fuel price cycle is still at an early stage, the figures point to strong upward pressure on prices in the coming month.

Middle East conflict driving oil surge

The increase is linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which have unsettled global energy markets.

The conflict, which intensified on 28 February, has raised fears about possible disruptions to oil supply, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil trade.

Attacks on commercial shipping in the area have heightened supply concerns, pushing the price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, above $100 per barrel this week after previously spiking close to $120.

Oil prices have surged from below $60 per barrel earlier this year, reflecting growing geopolitical uncertainty and fears about supply chain disruptions.

Possible impact on local fuel prices

For South Africa, which imports a large portion of its fuel, higher global oil prices can quickly translate into higher costs at the pumps.

If geopolitical tensions remain elevated and oil prices stay high throughout the month, motorists could see substantial increases in petrol and diesel prices in April, with the possibility of further adjustments in the months ahead.

Fuel price changes in South Africa are influenced by several factors, including international oil prices, the rand-dollar exchange rate, and local taxes and levies.

The final adjustment will therefore depend on how these variables evolve before the end of the current pricing cycle.

Latest forecast

Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 340 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 370 cents for 95 users is anticipated.

Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 618 and 629 cents per litre increase.

Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 795 cents in price.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $98.19 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.57/$.

The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on either Tuesday, 31 March or Tuesday, 7 April (TBC).

The March 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):