If you thought April’s fuel price hike was bad, just wait for May!

South African motorists are facing another historic jump in fuel prices, with increases for May 2026 set to outpace even the record rises in April.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) confirmed substantial increases across petrol, diesel, and illuminating paraffin this week, reflecting ongoing global oil price volatility and a weaker rand amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Thanks to the National Treasury’s announcement of a temporary reduction of the general fuel levy by R3.00 per litre, petrol both inland and at the coast ‘only’ went up by R3.06 per litre, while diesel jumped by between R7.37 and R7.51 per litre, depending on the grade.

Projected May Fuel Price Increases

However, that pales into comparison when compared to the early projections for May:

• Petrol 93: increase of R5.93 per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of R6.30 per litre
• Diesel (0.05% sulphur): increase of R14.85 per litre
• Diesel (0.005% sulphur): increase of R14.91 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R13.95 per litre

These sharp rises are expected to place significant pressure on household budgets and the cost of goods, particularly those reliant on diesel-powered transport.

Driving Forces Behind the Surge

The steep increases are being driven by:

• Escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly following US military strikes against Iran and subsequent retaliation.
• Rising global oil prices, with Brent crude climbing above $100 per barrel amid concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
• A weaker rand, which increases the local cost of imported fuel.

Economists warn that the May increase could further exacerbate inflation, particularly food and transportation costs, following April’s already substantial hikes.

Diesel Costs Pose a Major Economic Challenge

Diesel – used extensively in freight, agriculture, and industry – will see the most dramatic increases.

Businesses reliant on logistics and supply chains are expected to face sharp cost pressures, which could be passed on to consumers.

Analysts say monitoring global oil markets and currency fluctuations will be critical in the coming weeks to assess the full impact of these increases on the South African economy.

Latest forecast

Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 593 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 630 cents for 95 users is anticipated.

Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 1 485 and 1 491 cents per litre increase.

Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 1 395 cents in price.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $107.47 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.99/$.

The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May.

The April 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):