Warren Hammond’s Personal View: From R29K to R81K/oz – Gold’s bull market, forecast in 2021
From R29K to R81K/oz: Warren Hammond’s 2021 gold call proves right, as structural forces drive a long-term bull market.
In March 2021, when Gold traded at $1 685/oz (R29 143) and investor attention was elsewhere, The Personal View outlined a simple thesis: gold was entering a new secular bull market.
Gold’s Secular Bull Market: From Forecast to Reality
On 8 March 2021, I published “The Personal View: Buying Gold”, positioning gold as a core strategic holding, alongside select gold and precious-metal equities.
This was not a tactical call. It was structural.
Today, with spot gold at $5 100/oz (R81 639.17), the thesis has not merely played out – it has been validated through consistent discipline over five years.
Performance Since 8 March 2021 (USD terms)
- AngloGold Ashanti (AU): +388.3%
- Gold Fields (GFI): +432.2%
- Barrick Gold (B / ABX): +143.2%
- Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM): +284.6%
- First Majestic Silver (AG): +59.0%
An equal-weighted basket of these five stocks returned +261.5%.
For reference, spot gold rose from $1 685 (R29 143) to $5 100 (R81 639), a gain of +202.7%.
What proved decisive was the structural correctness of the gold thesis itself. Stock-specific performance has been mixed, albeit.
The Structural Forces Driving Gold’s Rise
Since 2021, The Personal View has consistently reiterated, reassessed, and reaffirmed a bullish stance on gold, driven by persistent forces:
• Structural fiscal imbalances
• Monetary debasement and inflation risk
• Central-bank accumulation and de-dollarisation
• Geopolitical fragmentation and conflict
• Systemic financial fragility
• Chronic underinvestment in supply
These dynamics have intensified, not faded.
In early 2025, the original long-term $3 000/oz (R51 882) objective was surpassed. On 26 February 2025, the forecast was raised to $5 000/oz (R86 477) within 12 months – a level now reached and exceeded.
Gold at $5,100 (R81 639.17) is not the endpoint.
It is a milestone in a longer secular trend.
Gold is not speculation. It is a strategy in an era of tectonic structural instability.
All gold-related posts, updates, and re-appraisals since 2021 are available on my LinkedIn profile.
Follow The Personal View for ongoing structural and tactical, alpha-generating insights.
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