Economists expect growth in the South African economy in 2026
A total of 43 economists participated in the February 2026 competition.
The Bureau of Market Research (BMR) at UNISA’s February forecasts show that South Africa’s economy is expected to grow at a modest pace in 2026.
This followed growth of 1.4% in 2025 after a 0.4% gain in 2024.
Most economists, including the National Treasury, use this measure when making their forecasts.
Leading economists
The BMR/Unisa Economist of the Year Competition brings together leading economists to provide independent forecasts. A total of 43 economists participated in the February 2026 competition.
The BMR cautioned that these forecasts were compiled prior to the escalation of the current Middle East conflict.
Consequently, geopolitical developments could affect specific variables.
The 2026 projections reflect the most probable economic trajectory based on available information.
Emphatically, that is prior to the start of the Iranian war on 28 February.
2022 economic growth experience
To put this into context, Russia invaded Ukraine the day after the 2022 Budget was tabled in February 2022.
Accordingly, most economists expected the consequent surge in energy prices to boost inflation and lower economic growth.
Inflation did increase to an average of 6.9% from the forecast 4.8%. Conversely, economic growth exceeded the Treasury forecast of 2.1% by coming in at 2.5%.
Explicitly, this unexpected economic growth in 2022 was largely due a 5.9% surge in fixed investment.
Furthermore, this came after six consecutive years of annual declines.
South Africa experienced two consecutive years of declining fixed investment in 2024 and 2025. The Treasury forecast a 2.4% rise this year.
High precious metal prices should provide a buffer to the domestic economy. Economists believe elevated prices could strengthen mining output.
This will boost tax receipts and create fiscal space for increased infrastructure expenditure.
Differing views on expected growth
Economists differ as to the strength of the household consumption and the fixed investment outlook.
Some economists expect household finances to strengthen more visibly as inflation moderates and interest rates decline.
This will support real household consumption expenditure growth above 2%. Others remain cautious, citing high unemployment, tight credit conditions and ongoing political and policy uncertainty.
Views on fixed investment also differ. More optimistic forecasts assume gradual progress in structural reforms in transport, water and energy.
This will encourage improved private-sector participation and result in enhanced confidence.
More cautious perspectives highlight risks associated with policy direction, governance concerns, biosecurity challenges in agriculture. Some economists highlight uncertainty linked to domestic political developments, including the local government elections.
What do you think the impact of the Iranian war will be on the economy?
Let us know by clicking on the comment banner below …
This article has been sourced from various publicly available news platforms around the world. All intellectual property rights remain with the original publishers and authors. Unshared News does not claim ownership of the content and provides it solely for informational and educational purposes voluntarily. If you are the rightful owner and believe this content has been used improperly, please contact us for prompt removal or correction.
